Use cash-equivalent value, not marketing face value.
Start with the wager
Calculate expected loss from the exact action and game before adding any benefit. This prevents a reward from hiding a more expensive base wager.
Use marginal analysis when only additional play earns the next reward.
Value the benefit honestly
Free play may require one or more wagers and may not return the promotional stake. A room is worth only what it replaces for that player.
Expiration, blackout dates, withdrawal limits, taxes, travel, and opportunity cost can reduce usable value.
Tier and threshold traps
Past action is sunk. Near a tier threshold, compare the incremental expected loss required with the incremental usable value—not the full annual benefit.
Do not increase a wager simply to accelerate points without recomputing expected cost.
Positive expectation claims
A defensible positive-EV claim needs documented rules, earning rate, redemption value, eligibility, capacity, and all material costs.
If one input is uncertain, show a range or break-even threshold rather than a guaranteed profit.
Working checklist
- Price the base action
- Use cash-equivalent reward value
- Include required play-through
- Analyze only incremental action
- Show break-even assumptions
Promotions, rebates, and net expected value, explained. uses rounded teaching examples. Apply a number to a live game only after matching its rules, pay table, strategy and denominator.