Casino Comps vs Expected Loss
Estimate the usable value of rewards and compare it with theoretical gambling cost using the same amount of action.
Core model
Theoretical loss = action × house edge. Face-value comps = theoretical loss × comp rate. Usable comp value then applies a personal redemption factor.
Worked example
$3,000 of action at a 2% edge implies $60 theoretical loss. A 20% comp rate has $12 face value; at 75% personal usability, that is $9 of usable value and approximately $51 net theoretical cost.
Limitations
Casinos may calculate theoretical win using proprietary game ratings, average bet and time estimates. Promotional offers may be discretionary and should not be treated as guaranteed cash.
Where this study stops
Casino Comps vs Expected Loss answers the question defined on this page. It does not predict a session, replace the posted rules or turn a long-run average into a short-term guarantee.